WASHINGTON, D.C. – The trading week was shortened with the market closing for the Thanksgiving holiday with the fairly quiet week ending with signals that the economy has slowed but has not stalled completely.
Although the revisions were done to the GDP data for quarter two did very little change for the US economy, the durable goods orders have proved to be an optimistic spot. However, the manufacturing surveys of the Fed has continued to point towards a lack of confidence when it comes to investment spending. The Beige Book released by the Fed also echoed the same two-speed view of the struggles in the economy, especially the factory and healthcare sector.
For this week, the consumer stayed as the strongest area for economic growth, with the spending staying on track to help put a solid performance for the 4th quarter. The healthy increase in salaries and wages, as well as benign inflation, has remained as the power source for the gains.
On the other hand, the revisions for the economic growth for quarter three were uneventful, with the GDP growth rising to 2.1% from the previous 1.9% due to the rise in inventories.
Overall, analysts are expecting about 2.4% advance for business investments to end the contraction for the previous two quarters. Plus, the strong labor markets are beginning to spark optimistic wage gains, especially for lower-income workers. And despite the uncertainty and gloomy trade progress, it’s something to be optimistic for the next quarter.
On the other hand, the Canadian market came out with a solid end to a relatively quiet week because of the Thanksgiving break. The main event for the Canadian market this week was the GDP report for the third quarter on Friday, showing a 1.3% increase on the economic activity, although it’s much more modest compared to the numbers from the previous quarter.
Looking ahead to the end of the year, a similar headline performance is what is expected for Canada as well, as confidence in small businesses has dropped marginally in November.
On the other hand, the market is also waiting for upcoming key economic releases. The US ISM Manufacturing Index is set for December 2, which is expected to continue with the recovery on recent optimism regarding trade discussions. The US Employment rate is also set for December 6, with an expected 3.5% decline on the unemployment rate, matching August’s multi-decade low.
In Canada, the market is waiting for the Canadian International Trade with a December 5 release date and the Canadian Employment rate set for December 6.