WASHINGTON, D.C. – The US-China trade negotiations have caused the global stock market to go up and down, further denting the market with recent news, and analysts say that the trade developments will continue to be the focal point for the next trading week.
The recent update on the US-China trade discussions, with the US President Donald Trump signing the Hong Kong Bill, market players has grown increasingly worried that China would retaliate, which might derail the already progressing phase one of the trade negotiations.
If China does retaliate, like what an official from the country has warned previously, it could mean that there will be another wave of bearish sentiments for the stock market, especially for the trade-sensitive stocks and commodity dollars next trading week.
Although the past couple of weeks have been fairly quiet for the market, excluding the updates on trade from both Washington and Beijing, the economic calendar is expected to have more action in the coming weeks.
The next trading week will start off with the key PMI numbers from both the services and manufacturing sectors from the major economies in the world.
Market focus will also shift towards a couple of central bank rate decisions and other important Australian data. Mid-week, crude oil will take the market focus with the expected oil inventories data from the US and the OPEC meeting set for Thursday. At the end of the week, the monthly employment data publication from both North and South America will take center stage.
With these events to look out for next week, market players are expecting more movements for the market, which is expected to create more elevated chances of volatility like what forex traders want.
Further, the US will publish the closely-followed PMI for ISM manufacturing on Monday, which will be followed by the PMI for ISM non-manufacturing on Wednesday. Dollar bulls are expecting to see a continued recovery when it comes to the manufacturing activity from the drops it experienced in September.
The monthly non-farm payroll documents for the US will also be released by Friday, marking as the most important employment report where the markets are concerned. Although the numbers have been showing decent gains as of late, the jobs growth has been on a decline for the past few months. If the employment growth report goes into the negative, it would mean the dollar could fall aggressively next week in response, with the Fed possibly planning for another rate cut early next year.