Ripple (XRP) currently has the fourth largest market cap of any cryptocurrency with a market cap of $12 billion. However, the Security and Exchange Commision (SEC) filed a lawsuit against the cryptocurrency and executives for illegally marketing the cryptocurrency to retail investors.
This lawsuit caused the price of the cryptocurrency to fall by over 50% in 24 hours. Additionally, Coinbase delisted Ripple from the Coinbase exchange.
This has led many in the cryptocurrency to wonder, does Ripple have a future?
In our opinion, Ripple does still have a future, but it will be a long, uphill battle for Ripple (XRP) to return to its previous high. It is certainly not a guarantee that the cryptocurrency will exist in the future at this point.
Anyway, this article will go into detail about the future of Ripple.
The Future of Ripple
As mentioned earlier, Ripple had a massive selloff when the SEC announced a lawsuit against Ripple and the executives. This selloff only compounded when Ripple’s cryptocurrency, XRP, was delisted from Coinbase.
The price is currently hovering at about $0.27, which is a 60% decrease from it’s 2020 high of $0.65.
Now, the lawsuit has not actually begun, it was only announced by the SEC. Whether Ripple survives or not will be determined when the SEC lawsuit is finished. Our next section will focus on whether Ripple has a chance of winning the lawsuit against the SEC.
Will the SEC win the lawsuit against Ripple?
The SEC has a reputation for aggressively going after instances of any type of securities malfeasance or fraud. And the SEC typically wins these lawsuits.
The United States federal government is a difficult force to beat because it has unlimited assets. If the SEC wants to make an example of Ripple as a warning to other cryptocurrencies, then it certainly has the means to do so.
There is one possible out that Ripple has for this lawsuit, though.
Ripple has operated as a currency for the past eight years. But the SEC is alleging that Ripple operated as a security.
This is a massive difference because a currency has entirely different regulations than a security. In fact, a currency is not even under the jurisdiction of the SEC.
With that in mind, the only way for Ripple to win their lawsuit, in our opinion, is to argue that they operate as a currency rather than a security. This is a reasonable argument considering Ripple operated for eight years as a currency until the SEC decided to file a lawsuit alleging they are a security that illegally marketed to retail investors.
Our opinion on the matter?
Ripple will probably lose the lawsuit, but this is not a slam dunk case for the SEC. There is a very good chance that Ripple does win the lawsuit by successfully arguing they are a currency not a security.
What happens if Ripple wins the lawsuit?
If Ripple wins the lawsuit, then they are still not in the clear as a business or viable cryptocurrency. For one, XRP has already been delisted from many exchanges, including Coinbase, because it’s potentially illegal for exchanges to sell XRP if XRP is a security rather than an exchange.
And that’s a huge problem. Decentralized exchanges are great, but most cryptocurrency transactions occur on centralized exchanges like Coinbase or Kraken.
This is where it gets complicated for Ripple. If they win the lawsuit, then they could get back onto exchanges without any legal repercussions for the exchanges. However, will the exchanges trust Ripple after the lawsuit?
We do not see why they would not trust Ripple if Ripple wins the lawsuit. But it is a question worth considering.
When will the Ripple lawsuit be settled?
The lawsuit with Ripple will likely take years to settle. A good estimate is anywhere from two years if it’s fast to five years if it takes a particularly long time.
And this will be the biggest problem. Does Ripple have the ability to stay afloat while they wait for the lawsuit with the SEC to finish?
Ripple is doing ok at the moment – they did not collapse at the announcement of the lawsuit. But two years or more is a long time for a cryptocurrency to survive without being on any major exchanges.
Is the SEC lawsuit the “beginning of the end” for Ripple?
In our opinion, the SEC lawsuit is the “beginning of the end” for Ripple. It is possible for Ripple to win the lawsuit by using the currency argument, but the impact of the lawsuit makes it unlikely that Ripple will survive in the event they do win the lawsuit.
It’s unfortunate because Ripple had such a bright future. It just seems unlikely that a cryptocurrency can survive without being on a major exchange.
Should I sell my XRP?
This simply depends on your risk tolerance. Some people purchased more XRP after the SEC announced the lawsuit!
We recommend reading through the SEC lawsuit and researching whether Ripple really is a currency or security. You should also consider that this lawsuit has the potential to drag out for years before a verdict. In other words, Ripple could win the lawsuit and still collapse because the amount of time out of exchanges will likely erode the value of the cryptocurrency.
Not to mention that many of Ripple’s banking partners may decide to jump ship if they believe that Ripple will not be able to win the lawsuit.
That covers it for the future of Ripple. In our opinion, this is likely the beginning of the end for Ripple.
There is one path for Ripple to recover from this situation and many paths for it to fail.
It’s reasonable enough to assume that Ripple will not come out ahead from this lawsuit despite the possibility still existing.
Our only bit of advice: tread carefully with Ripple. You can also check our Ripple Vs Stellar article.